Strategic Triumph: BJP's Eight Seats Victory in Telangana Unveils Deeper Political Machinations

Strategic Triumph: BJP's Eight Seats Victory in Telangana Unveils Deeper Political Machinations

Dr. Asif Nawaz

Assistant Professor

Hamdard Institute of International Studies

Jamia Hamdard University, New Delhi

draasifnawaz@gmail.com

The results of the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana were announced yesterday, unveiling a political turn that had been anticipated in the favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the first three states. However, what caught political pundits by surprise was the BJP's unexpected success in Telangana, not only in terms of securing a eight seats and increasing vote share but also in terms of their strategic moves. This outcome, while not a direct claim to power, signifies a well-thought-out plan aimed at reshaping the political dynamics in the state and undermining the influence of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) leader, K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR).

The leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be extremely satisfied with the party's successful outcomes in various states, and they express a special sense of joy regarding the unexpected growth of the BJP in Telangana. The story develops with a candid acknowledgement that the BJP never had high expectations of securing the leading position in the Southern State of Telangana. Instead, the party tactically focused on expanding its influence and boosting its share of votes, remarkably achieving an increase from 6.98% in 2018 to an impressive 13.90% in 2023.

However, there are those who argue that beneath this seemingly modest objective, there was a hidden agenda - to cause political harm to KCR and his political party BRS. Numerous political experts take a broader view and perceive regional parties like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as posing a greater threat to the nation than the Indian National Congress. Regional players such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal United (JDU), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray are included in this list.

Numerous political analysts who possess a profound comprehension of the election trends in India assert that the linguistic and caste-driven politics adopted by regional parties present a significant obstacle to the integrity and unity of the nation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have recognized these regional parties as their primary adversaries in their political agenda. The current emphasis was placed on KCR, wherein the examination indicates that the Congress party managed to augment its percentage of votes in Telangana precisely by the exact margin that KCR lost.

The BJP's extensive and high-dimensional multifaceted campaign strategy has effectively achieved two important objectives. In the first place, it successfully halted further haemorrhaging of votes to KCR, thereby preventing any further decline in their support base. Additionally, the campaign has significantly strengthened the BJP's own vote bank, positioning the party as a formidable contender and the second-largest political force in the opposition of state of Telangana. It is crucial to emphasize the far-reaching consequences of this campaign, as it clearly demonstrates the BJP's determination to reduce KCR's influence and establish itself as a prominent and influential player in Telangana's political arena.

Looking beyond the immediate outcome of the election in Telangana, if the Congress party emerges victorious, there are several potential consequences that could unfold.

KCR's Eroded Credibility & Limited Options: The victory of the Congress party not only undermines KCR's credibility on the national stage but also exposes the erosion of his once strong reputation. KCR is currently grappling with a challenging situation where he has very few alternatives and must carefully consider whether to form an alliance with the Congress party, a decision that could potentially put his political future at risk.

Strategic Manoeuvrings for BJP: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to employ strategic tactics to influence KCR into aligning with the agendas of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah, even without formally joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as predicted by several experts.

Legal Vulnerability for KCR's Family: There is considerable speculation among political analysts regarding the possibility of legal complications that could arise for KCR's family, particularly his daughter Kavitha. Such conjecture highlights the potential for significant political implications that could be triggered by these legal vulnerabilities.

Strategic Advantage in Delhi: The potential arrest of KCR's daughter in Delhi is perceived as a strategic advantage for Modi-Shah, as it presents them with an opportunity to effectively address the political situation in the city by disempowering and neutralizing Kejriwal, who serves as the Chief of the Aam Admi Party.

Congress Retains Nuisance Value: The success achieved by Congress in the recent elections of Telangana not only helps to solidify its position within the ever-evolving political climate of India but also allows it to retain its significance and influence in the alliance namely "INDIA" which has been formed as a counterforce to the ruling NDA led by Prime Minister Modi. The Congress party, by claiming leadership within this alliance, has now positioned itself as a strong contender for the coveted Prime Minister's seat in the forthcoming General elections scheduled for 2024.

Potential Discord Among Regional Leaders: There is a possibility of discord arising among regional leaders within the 'INDIA’ alliance,  due to the Congress victory in Telangana, which might not be well-received by those regional parties with ambitious aspirations. This potential discord could create internal tensions and disagreements among the regional leaders who are parts of ‘INDIA’ alliance.

BJP’s Strategic Advantage for Future Elections: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will have a strategic advantage for future elections when it comes to target Congress in the state of Telangana. It is widely believed among the political pundits that dislodging Congress from any state for BJP is a more feasible task compared to challenging a regional party. With this in mind, the BJP may devise a comprehensive plan to secure a resounding victory in 2028 assembly election in Telangana. This plan may be capitalized on the anti-incumbency sentiments that are expected to arise against Congress in Telangana five later in 2028. These sentiments are likely to stem from the nonfulfillment of promises made by Congress in 2023 election campaign and are further fuelled by the perceived financial mismanagement of the state by its outgoing CM KCR, over the last decade.

To summarize, one can argue that the BJP's unexpected victory in Telangana has significant implications that go beyond just winning 8 seats in the election. It reveals a well-thought-out plan to reshape the state's political landscape, aiming for both immediate gains and long-term dominance. The initial assertions of winning Telangana 2023’s assembly election made by senior BJP leaders during their election campaigns were essential to create an aura of euphoria to channel votes away from KCR and create a sense of excitement towards the BJP. This piece provides readers with a nuanced understanding of the intricate political strategy employed by BJP strategists, where each move is carefully calculated to achieve broader, long-term goals.